As the global community intensifies efforts to mitigate climate change, recent developments in China may represent a pivotal moment. For the first time, China’s carbon emissions have reportedly declined (by 1.6%) between May 2024 and May 2025, even while demand for energy surged. Previously, emission reductions were linked to economic downturns, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic. This decline is particularly significant given that China is responsible for around 30% of global emissions. Notably, experts have indicated that if it wasn’t for China’s emissions increase, global emissions could have stabilized a decade ago.
The urgency for emission reductions is underscored by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which emphasizes that merely maintaining current emission levels will not suffice to keep global warming below 1.5°C. There is an imperative need for significant reductions in annual emissions. The decline in China’s emissions is largely attributed to a massive shift towards renewable energy, with substantial investments in solar and wind power over recent years. Data indicates that more than a quarter of China’s electricity was generated from wind and solar for the first time in April 2025, as emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 3.6%.
China’s rapid adoption of renewable technologies contrasts sharply with its historical dependence on coal. Currently, Chinese firms dominate the global manufacturing of renewable energy technology, supplying approximately 60% of wind turbines and 80% of solar panels worldwide. While this rapid growth in renewables is encouraging, experts caution that coal will continue to play a significant role in China’s energy landscape for the foreseeable future.
Despite these advancements, China’s emission levels remain on par with many developed nations that have been working to curb their emissions for some time. Compared to the UK, where nearly half of the energy comes from renewables, China’s reliance on coal is still notable. The emissions per capita in China and India remain low compared to developed countries, yet China’s emissions per capita exceed those of the UK and EU, illustrating an intricate balance between industrial growth and environmental impact.
There are uncertainties about whether this decline in emissions will continue or remain stagnant. Experts warn that geopolitical issues, such as the Ukraine conflict, could push China back towards reliance on fossil fuels due to necessary energy security considerations. However, the growth of renewable technologies and energies may simultaneously enhance national security by reducing dependency on energy imports.
China is under pressure to fulfill its international climate commitments, which include a target to reduce carbon intensity by 65% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. However, the country achieved only a 7.9% reduction between 2020 and 2024, suggesting that meeting its interim carbon intensity reduction goal by 2025 will require significant further efforts.
Interestingly, there is potential for a paradigm shift in China’s role in global climate governance. China’s position may evolve as it shifts from viewing itself as a developing nation needing leniency towards taking a leadership role in climate action, amplifying its commitment to making tangible results. President Xi Jinping’s calls for action at international climate conferences signal this potential transition, indicating a more proactive approach to climate policy and cooperation on a global scale.
